What Could Go Wrong in Florida?
Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board Member Rick Hasen predicts in his Election Law Blog three potential problems if Florida goes forward with a June Mail-Vote Primary:
As I have noted,"there's something especially worrisome about rolling out a new system for counting votes for the first time in a presidential contest. It is like debuting your new play straight on Broadway." Dan Tokaji has raised similar and additional administrability concerns. A meltdown could well backfire on the Democrats, making Floridians less likely to vote for a Democrat in the fall, and tarnishing even further the reputation of Florida.
2. The Specter of Vote Fraud
Any time voting takes place outside the voting booth, there is the chance of a vote buying arrangement. As I have explained, absentee ballot fraud was rampant enough for a court to void the Miami mayor's race of 1997. We can also expect that the loser of the contest will have an incentive to claim fraud as a way of trying to undermine the results, much like what may be happening with the Texas caucus right now.
3. Undermining the Ability of the DNC to Insure Order on the Primary Process
It would be quite ironic if Florida, despite having broken the rules, would get to hold a final primary that the media (and perhaps the candidates) will bill as the decisive contest to sway the superdelegates (as in, whoever can win in Florida deserves to take on John McCain in November). What incentive will this create for states in 2012 asked to abide by the Democratic party rules for the timing of primaries and caucuses?
What do you think the odds are of one or more of these problems arising if Florida Democrats go forward with their plan?
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1 comments:
Rick Hasen knows this stuff a hell of a lot better than I do, but I think issue #1 is the biggest and most realistic concern.
It's taken Oregon quite some time to get a real mastery of a vote-by-mail system, and they gone through several iterations to get where they are today. While their experience is instructive and will help ease the path in installation for another state, there are always local issues that will crop and may not be fully predictable without empirical data. Except for those who have been voting absentee, this is a very different voting experience for most people.
Issue #2 is one I struggle with. While the potential is clearly greater for voter fraud under a mail-in system (particularly on being hastily installed), I have questions with the likelihood that systemic and organized voter fraud will occur. A re-vote in FL will have massive media attention, and the gotcha journalists that pervade cable news will be salivating over the possibility of catching someone engaged in this type of shenanigans. So while there is a greater likelihood of fraud occurring, will it rise to a level of statistical significance?
#3: This is the area of least concern, IMHO. By successfully forcing a re-vote in MI & in FL, the DNC has stuck to its guns and made the states abide by the rules. This was always an option under the DNC's playbook for this primary season. This establishes precedent for 4 years from now and in the future that those who flaunt the rules will pay a price. This year's race is also a reminder that not being first doesn't mean you will be irrelevent, so there will be less incentive to try and jump to the front of the pack again, especially knowing that there will be consequences.
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