Jesse "The Senator" Ventura?

In multiple interviews today, former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura hinted that he is considering joining the state's 2008 U.S. Senate race.

NPR, the AP, the Politico, the New York Times all have reports on his possible candidacy against Norm Coleman and Al Franken.

A recent poll shows Ventura would draw support from Franken, Coleman, and undecideds. Without Ventura, Coleman leads Franken 52-40. With Ventura, Coleman polls at 41%, Franken at 31%, and Ventura at 23%.

Then again, when Ventura was elected Governor in 1998, he was also polling in third.

What do you think? Should he do it? Can he win?


 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

US Supreme Court Upholds Voter ID Requirement

This morning the United States Supreme Court released its decision in Crawford v. Marion County Election Board (pdf). This case sought to determine whether the State of Indiana's voter identification requirement violated the constitutional rights of voters.

In its plurality-decision today, the Court upheld the voter identification requirement in Indiana, ruling that states only need a rational justification for implementing new voting requirements.

Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board Member Rick Hasen has a more detailed analysis on his Election Law Blog.

Do you think today's Court ruling will encourage additional states to pass stricter voting requirements?

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Will Protracted Nomination Fight Help or Hurt Democrats?

Common political wisdom in recent weeks, as exemplified by this report in the New York Times, is that a protracted nomination fight could spoil the best chance Democrats have in recent years of reclaiming the White House. With an unpopular president and a struggling economy, Democratic candidates Barack Obama (D-IL) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) argue that they have a unique opportunity to claim the mantle of change and sail to victory. However, with neither likely to gain the nomination without the help of so-called superdelegates, neither appears likely to concede to the other any time soon. The result, many in the Democratic Party fear, is that they will tear each other down and hurt each other's chances at winning the presidency.

However, as a recent analysis in the Washington Post suggests, there may be a flip side to a protracted nomination fight: increased voter registration and interest. While Democrats participating in early contests outnumbered republicans by nearly 2 to 1 in states like Iowa, they are gaining an even greater advantage in registered voters in more recent states like Pennsylvania, where Republicans have no meaningful contest, with presumptive nominee John McCain (R-AZ) having already secured the delegates necessary to win the nomination.

Will a protracted nomination fight help or hurt Democrats? Post in the comments section below.
Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

What Could Go Wrong in Florida?

Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board Member Rick Hasen predicts in his Election Law Blog three potential problems if Florida goes forward with a June Mail-Vote Primary:

1. An Election Meltdown
As I have noted,"there's something especially worrisome about rolling out a new system for counting votes for the first time in a presidential contest. It is like debuting your new play straight on Broadway." Dan Tokaji has raised similar and additional administrability concerns. A meltdown could well backfire on the Democrats, making Floridians less likely to vote for a Democrat in the fall, and tarnishing even further the reputation of Florida.

2. The Specter of Vote Fraud
Any time voting takes place outside the voting booth, there is the chance of a vote buying arrangement. As I have explained, absentee ballot fraud was rampant enough for a court to void the Miami mayor's race of 1997. We can also expect that the loser of the contest will have an incentive to claim fraud as a way of trying to undermine the results, much like what may be happening with the Texas caucus right now.

3. Undermining the Ability of the DNC to Insure Order on the Primary Process
It would be quite ironic if Florida, despite having broken the rules, would get to hold a final primary that the media (and perhaps the candidates) will bill as the decisive contest to sway the superdelegates (as in, whoever can win in Florida deserves to take on John McCain in November). What incentive will this create for states in 2012 asked to abide by the Democratic party rules for the timing of primaries and caucuses?

What do you think the odds are of one or more of these problems arising if Florida Democrats go forward with their plan?

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Florida Democratic Party Proposes June 3 Mail Vote Primary

Politico reports that the Florida Democratic Party has developed a plan to redo its Primary election through a June 3 Mail Ballot.

No word yet from either Clinton or Obama on their reactions to the proposal. The re-vote election is estimated to cost between $10-$12 million, though right now, no one has volunteered to pay for it.

The plan reads in part:

" With the oversight of the commission, the primary will be managed by reputable election management companies who are experienced in special elections. A recognized accounting firm will provide further assurance that the process is conducted fairly and accurately. Civil rights and election law attorneys will monitor all legal aspects of the primary.

The primary will be organized at a Florida Democratic Primary Headquarters (HQ) office in Central Florida. The 50 REOs will handle local outreach and educational activity, with specific consideration given to disadvantaged communities.

Vote-by-mail (VBM) packets will be mailed to all registered Democratic voters at least two weeks prior to Election Day (likely earlier). This will be handled by a firm experienced in special elections conducted by mail. VBM packets will contain a prepaid, addressed return envelope and one ballot. The instructions will be simple and clearly printed on the ballot and envelope. All ballots and instructions will be printed in English, Spanish and Creole to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The plan can be submitted to the Justice Department for approval under Section 5.

Although VBM packets will not be forwarded, when a ballot is returned as undeliverable, a notification card will be sent to the voter’s forwarding address offering the voter the opportunity to correct their registration record and receive a new VBM packet in time for the election. The undeliverable ballots also will be recorded and stored until 21 days after the voting deadline.

If a voter does not receive a ballot or whose ballot has been damaged/lost, he or she may contact HQ or an REO to request a replacement. A voter may cast an in-person provisional ballot at a regional office if their voting eligibility cannot be confirmed.
REOs will be open every day for the two weeks leading up to the voting deadline for informational purposes, distribution of replacement ballots, in-person voting, and collection of completed ballots. REOs will have a locked ballot box and will be staffed, but votes will only be counted at HQ. Every evening, the day’s ballot box will be picked up from the REOs and transported to HQ. All ballots must be received by 7:00 PM on Election Day to count."

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Presidential Candidate Campaign Obstacles

Now that there's a mini-lull in the presidential campaign schedule, here is some information on the obstacles facing each of the remaining presidential candidates:

For Senator John McCain (R-AZ), the presumptive Republican nominee, there is a concern that his prior entry into the Federal Election Commission's (FEC) public financing system, and the FEC chairman's recent letter suggesting McCain will not be able to withdraw from such a system, will hamstring his campaign before he officially accepts the Republican nomination in Minneapolis-St. Paul in September. Of particular interest is the irony that the very system McCain helped create may well limit his ability to compete with financial juggernauts, Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) or Hillary Clinton (D-NY). This, of course, is in addition to the recent, oft-criticized reports, that McCain engaged in an improper relationship with a female lobbyist during his 2000 presidential campaign.

Before Senator Clinton even worries about facing McCain, however, she needs to combat the perception that her campaign is losing momentum, or as the New York Times reports, that her political horizon "darkens." As of Monday, February 25, Clinton has lost eleven straight nominating contests to Obama, and her campaign acknowledges that she must win delegate-rich Texas and Ohio to remain competitive.

Senator Obama faces obstacles on several fronts, including Republican accusations that he lacks patriotism, Senator Clinton's suggestions that Obama has flip-flopped on his stance on union involvement in this campaign, and even the concern that perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader, who recently announced he will again seek the presidency, will siphon votes from Obama. Finally, those comparing Obama to inspirational politicians of the 1960s fear that his candidacy threatens his life.

It will be an interesting 9-10 days to see which of these obstacles proves lasting and which fades with the passage of time.

Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

It's Our Party (we should be allowed to vote if we want to)

[Senior Fellow David Schultz asked me to submit this post on his behalf]

Imagine the Minnesota DFL Party adopting a rule that no people of color could participate in their caucuses, or the Republican Party adopting one barring women from attending. Could they do that? Proponents of the political parties seem to imply such a right when arguing against a law calling for primaries instead of caucuses for the selection of presidential and other candidates. While the courts have given broad deference to the First Amendment freedom of association rights of political parties, those rights are limited.

There is no question that political parties should generally be free to determine who can be a member and how they select their candidates. Over the last 20 years the Supreme Court has ruled that parties are free to associate with whomever they wish. This means, for example, that the Republican Party of Connecticut could invite independents to participate in their primaries even though a state law prohibited it. Conversely, the Court also voided a California law permitting voters in primaries to select candidates in any party, citing the right of political parties to limit who can participate in their selection. Paraphrasing the Leslie Gore song, the reason for these decisions is that “It’s my party and I’ll invite whom I want to.”

While these cases significantly protect party rights, the Supreme Court has never held that they are free to discriminate. In a series of decisions from the 1930s through the 1950s known as the “White Primary” cases, the Court struck down as unconstitutional party rules that excluded African-Americans from participating in the Texas Democratic Party primaries. The Court ruled that primaries are not always private affairs immune from regulation. The government had an interest in ensuring political parties were free from discrimination, especially when their actions—such as the selection of candidates—would appear on the general election ballot. To say that individuals have a right to vote but to deny them the right to participate in party affairs effectively undermines that right. The courts have also endorsed rules limiting party access to the ballot, and the Supreme Court upheld a Minnesota law preventing one party from cross-endorsing candidates from another.

What became clear on caucus night in Minnesota is how exclusionary and discriminatory the process is. While there was no official policy stating that neither women nor African-Americans could participate, many people were disenfranchised. They included those who worked second shifts or who were working second jobs, the elderly afraid to go out at night, parents with child-rearing duties, and others, such as those serving in the military in places like Iraq. None of them could participate via an absentee ballot, as would be the case in a general election. While the discrimination that occurred might not rise to the level of that found in the White Primary cases, it was nonetheless no less exclusionary and limited in whom it effectively allowed to participate.

The caucus system does promote important values. It encourages deliberation and opens up the parties to many who can suggest issues for it consider. But these values must be balanced against those favoring convenience and greater opportunity for more individuals to participate. Perhaps a hybrid system of all-day voting, absentee ballots, and caucuses at the end of the day can harmonize these competing objectives.

Minnesota prides itself on its high voter turnout. Unfortunately a record-setting caucus turnout of 10% of the voting population is dismal. Such a rate were it to occur in the south with its high minority populations, would be viewed with skepticism. The caucus system, while quaint, is a product of a Lake Wobegon era of Minnesota that is passing away and it may no longer be the most inclusive means of selecting candidates in the 21st century.


David Schultz is a Hamline University Professor in the Graduate School of Management where he teaches classes in government ethics, and at the University of Minnesota in the Law School where he teaches election law and serves as a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Law and Politics.

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Obama v. Clinton: Could Delegate Counts Spark a Lawsuit?

Former U.S. Solicitor General and Bush v. Gore counsel, Ted Olson, writes in today's Wall Street Journal of the possibility of contentious litigation should there be a contest in seating delegates to the Democratic National Convention:

"Imagine that as the convention approaches, Sen. Clinton is leading in the popular vote, but Sen. Obama has the delegate lead. Surely no one familiar with her history would doubt that her take-no-prisoners campaign team would do whatever it took to capture the nomination, including all manner of challenges to Obama delegates and tidal waves of litigation.

"Indeed, it has already been reported that Sen. Clinton will demand that the convention seat delegates from Michigan and Florida, two states whose delegates have been disqualified by the party for holding January primaries in defiance of party rules. The candidates agreed not to campaign in those states. But Sen. Clinton opted to keep her name on the Michigan primary ballot, and staged a primary-day victory visit to Florida, winning both of those unsanctioned primaries. Her campaign is arguing that the delegates she won in each state be recognized despite party rules and notwithstanding her commitment not to compete in those primaries. Of course. 'Count every vote.'

"As the convention nears, with Sen. Clinton trailing slightly in the delegate count, the next step might well be a suit in the Florida courts challenging her party's refusal to seat Florida's delegation at the convention. And the Florida courts, as they did twice in 2000, might find some ostensible legal basis for overturning the pre-election rules and order the party to recognize the Clinton Florida delegates. That might tip the balance to Sen. Clinton..."

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Check Out Hillary's New Victory Speech Game

Stephen Colbert at The Colbert Report introduces us to Hillary's new dance and tells us that Garrison Keillor is the "whitest man alive". Check out the video here:


 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Where Do Democrats Go From Here?

There is likely to be a protracted battle for Delegates to the Democratic National Convention unseen in generations.

With Obama and Hillary very near each other in Delegate counts after Super Tuesday (Hillary: ~845, Obama: ~765) and neither anywhere near the 2,025 needed to win the nomination, this contest could go on for weeks (if not months).

Politico has an overview of some of the strategy going into the next phase of the Democratic Presidential nomination campaign.

Then there's the nightmare scenario: a Convention so close that the DNC Credentials Committee would have to determine whether or not Florida and Michigan get to seat their delegates and determine the winner.

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

The Free Market Predicts Obama Will Win California Tomorrow

Two electronic predictive markets that offer trades on the Democratic Presidential Primary in California tomorrow both predict wins for Barack Obama.

InTrade Prediction Markets, trading real money, is currently trading a Barack Obama win in California at 57.6, with Hillary trading at 30.5.

The National Journal Political Stock Exchange, a free site, is currently trading a Barack Obama win in California at 58.0, with Hillary trading at 38.0.

Though these same markets failed to predict Hillary's Primary win in New Hampshire, they have otherwise often proved to be fairly accurate.

These websites allow users to buy and sell shares in predicting political outcomes. For any given race, a correct outcome is worth $1.00 per share. Leading up to the outcome, you can buy our sell predictions on which candidate will win, with the price of that share representing the marketplace's view on the likelihood of that outcome. For instance, if you were to say that there is an equal likelihood of the Democrat or Republican winning in a particular race, each candidate's share should trade for $0.50. If a particular candidate is more likely to win, their share will trade closer to the full dollar.

In my book, it's still too close to call.

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Minnesota Caucus on "Super Tuesday", February 5

Minnesota will hold its caucuses at 7:00pm on Tuesday, February 5.

Partisan precinct caucuses will determine Minnesota's National Delegates for the Presidential nomination. Caucuses also elect local party officers, propose issue resolutions for party platforms, and elect delegates to local party conventions.

Click below for precinct caucus location information by political party:

Republican Party of Minnesota

Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party of Minnesota

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Democratic Presidential Race Taking Shape?

After splitting wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are mounting increasingly aggressive campaigns against each other, as the Washington Post's Dan Balz notes. Far from being a two-way race, however, Balz also argues that former Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) has a very important role to play, perhaps in siphoning votes from either Clinton or Obama, or in a potential decision to release his delegates to either candidate.

Edwards, however, says that he's "in to win," and some polls in soon-to-vote states support such a decision. What seems clear, then, is that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is wide-open. The next contest in which all three will be on the ballot is in Nevada, where residents will caucus January 19. Stay tuned for results and predictions of the outcome.




Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

2008 Presidential Election: What's Next?

We are now in what can be considered the middle of the front-loaded Presidential nominating process. The two early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are now behind us. A handful of additional states will have their contests in the next two weeks, with the majority of National Delegates allocated on February 5.

Here is a brief overview of what is coming and where the candidates stand:

Tuesday, January 15:
Michigan Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Michigan of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
30 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 27%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 15%)

Saturday, January 19:
South Carolina Republican Primary
24 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 28%, Huckabee 21%, Romney 17%)

Nevada Caucuses
33 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%)
34 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%)

Saturday, January 26:
South Carolina Democratic Primary
54 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 44%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 16%)

Tuesday, January 29:
Florida Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Florida of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
57 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 19%, Huckabee 19%)

Friday, February 1:
Maine Republican Primary
21 GOP Delegates
(No polling data available)

Tuesday, February 5:
"Super Tuesday" - 22 states hold Primaries and Caucuses, representing a majority of National Convention Delegates

California Primary
440 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%)
173 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 17%, Romney 15%)

New York Primary
280 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 56%, Obama 29%, Edwards 8%)
101 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 32%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 12%)

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

McCain and Obama Leading the Day Before New Hampshire Primary

The 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary is tomorrow. It appears likely that Barack Obama and John McCain will win there, which would be important victories for each of them, and will almost certainly lead to more candidates to withdraw from the race (Fred Thompson? Duncan Hunter? Bill Richardson?).

With one day to go, CNN and Gallop polls show Obama with double-digit leads over Hillary Clinton, and gaining more momentum quickly.

The same polls show a more competitive race on the Republican side, with Senator McCain leading Mitt Romney by four to six points, depending on the poll.

Poor showings in the Iowa Caucuses last week led Chris Dodd and Joe Biden to drop out.

Once again, Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board member Steve Grove of YouTube, gives us a video overview of the New Hampshire campaigns:


[In case anyone was actually paying attention, my predictions for the Iowa Caucuses weren't too far off].

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Steve Grove Explains How Tomorrow's Iowa Caucuses Will Work

Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board member Steve Grove explains how the Iowa Caucuses work in this new YouTube video:


For those who missed it, last week Newsweek magazine named Steve one of its "Next 2008".

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Iowa Caucuses Two Days Away and Still Wide Open

The Iowa Presidential Caucuses will be held this Thursday, January 3, and national polls show a virtual dead heat among the three Democratic front-runners. The final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton. As the final poll in the race, conducted by the state's major newspaper, this announcement could give a strong final boost to Obama's campaign.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been battling for the lead, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Fred Thomson all vying for a third place finish. Though Mike Huckabee's surge of the past two months has received the most mainstream press coverage, in many ways it is more noteworthy that Ron Paul and John McCain are both competitive here. John McCain's candidacy was written off months ago by many observers when fundraising and staffing problems caused him to struggle. And Ron Paul, despite raising a staggering $20 million dollars this quarter, has still gone virtually unnoticed by the media and the general public, yet remains on par with the major candidates in polls of Iowa caucus-goers.

If either of these contests finishes as closely as they could, it is possible that the winner will not gain the momentum that traditionally follows from an Iowa victory. But this all remains to be seen. Two more days and we should have some answers.

---------------------------------------

Just for fun, here are my predictions for the Iowa caucuses:*

GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee - 29%
2. Mitt Romney - 28%
3. John McCain - 12%

DEM:
1. Barack Obama - 30%
2. John Edwards - 28%
3. Hillary Clinton - 27%

*Disclaimers:
1) These are not the views of the Institute for Law and Politics.
2) These are just guesses, not expert analysis.
3) I just want a record of my predictions in the unlikely event that I am exactly right.

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Institute Advisory Board Member Steve Grove previews tomorrow's CNN/YouTube Republican Debate

Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board Member and YouTube News and Politics Editor Steve Grove gives us a behind-the-scenes video preview of the CNN/YouTube Republican Presidential Candidate Debate which will air tomorrow, Wednesday, November 28, at 7:00pm Central on CNN:

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

Advisory Board Member Tova Wang Questions the Value of the Caucus System

Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board Member Tova Wang - a Fellow at the Century Foundation - recently authored a report arguing against the use of caucuses in the presidential selection process.

Her paper, "Has America Outgrown the Caucus? Some Thoughts on Reshaping the Nomination Contest" (pdf), argues that time-consuming, weeknight caucuses violate the principal that all citizens should have an equal opportunity to participate in the political system.

"Also, the caucuses actually discourage campaigns from trying to attract new voters to the system. Campaign workers know that only the most avid partisans will go through the tribulations of a caucus, and these avid partisans are likely to be people who have voted consistently in the past. Thus as a political calculus it makes no sense for them to reach out to infrequent or potential new voters."

What do you think? Is the caucus system broken? Do the benefits of in-person deliberation with one's neighbors outweigh the limited participation that caucuses historically exhibit? Are there any middle-ground reforms, short of scrapping the system, that might alleviate some of these concerns?

 Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed

2008 Presidential Primaries Might Move into 2007

According to The Washington Post and The New York Times, Iowa Democrats have moved their caucus date to January 3, 2008, the same day Republicans will hold the first-in-the-nation caucuses. The change exemplifies the recent trend in which states have attempted to move their nomination contests earlier in the year to ensure that voters play a significant role in the candidate vetting process.

As more evidence of this phenomenon, New Hampshire may be displaced as the first state to hold a primary, according to a recent report from the Politico. Michigan Democrats, spurred by Senator Carl Levin, are considering moving their primary to December, 2007, despite warnings from the Democratic National Committee not to do so.

Whichever state holds the first primaries or caucuses, the result is clear: the nominating contests for each party will begin earlier this year than in any years in recent memory.

Enjoy the Law and Politics Blog? Subscribe to our RSS Feed