Klobuchar Endorses Obama

The latest news from the Wall Street Journal and the Star Tribune indicates that freshman Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) endorsed presidential candidate Barack Obama last night.

"My endorsement reflects both Barack's strong support in my state and my own independent judgment about his abilities," explained Klobuchar, likening the Illinois Democrat to Minnesota's first Vice President, Hubert Humphrey.

According to the New York Times superdelegate tracker, the senator's endorsement of Obama leaves only two Minnesota superdelegates uncommitted: Collin Peterson, the representative from the state's 7th Congressional district; and Nancy Larson, a state party official.

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Will Protracted Nomination Fight Help or Hurt Democrats?

Common political wisdom in recent weeks, as exemplified by this report in the New York Times, is that a protracted nomination fight could spoil the best chance Democrats have in recent years of reclaiming the White House. With an unpopular president and a struggling economy, Democratic candidates Barack Obama (D-IL) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) argue that they have a unique opportunity to claim the mantle of change and sail to victory. However, with neither likely to gain the nomination without the help of so-called superdelegates, neither appears likely to concede to the other any time soon. The result, many in the Democratic Party fear, is that they will tear each other down and hurt each other's chances at winning the presidency.

However, as a recent analysis in the Washington Post suggests, there may be a flip side to a protracted nomination fight: increased voter registration and interest. While Democrats participating in early contests outnumbered republicans by nearly 2 to 1 in states like Iowa, they are gaining an even greater advantage in registered voters in more recent states like Pennsylvania, where Republicans have no meaningful contest, with presumptive nominee John McCain (R-AZ) having already secured the delegates necessary to win the nomination.

Will a protracted nomination fight help or hurt Democrats? Post in the comments section below.
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What Could Go Wrong in Florida?

Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board Member Rick Hasen predicts in his Election Law Blog three potential problems if Florida goes forward with a June Mail-Vote Primary:

1. An Election Meltdown
As I have noted,"there's something especially worrisome about rolling out a new system for counting votes for the first time in a presidential contest. It is like debuting your new play straight on Broadway." Dan Tokaji has raised similar and additional administrability concerns. A meltdown could well backfire on the Democrats, making Floridians less likely to vote for a Democrat in the fall, and tarnishing even further the reputation of Florida.

2. The Specter of Vote Fraud
Any time voting takes place outside the voting booth, there is the chance of a vote buying arrangement. As I have explained, absentee ballot fraud was rampant enough for a court to void the Miami mayor's race of 1997. We can also expect that the loser of the contest will have an incentive to claim fraud as a way of trying to undermine the results, much like what may be happening with the Texas caucus right now.

3. Undermining the Ability of the DNC to Insure Order on the Primary Process
It would be quite ironic if Florida, despite having broken the rules, would get to hold a final primary that the media (and perhaps the candidates) will bill as the decisive contest to sway the superdelegates (as in, whoever can win in Florida deserves to take on John McCain in November). What incentive will this create for states in 2012 asked to abide by the Democratic party rules for the timing of primaries and caucuses?

What do you think the odds are of one or more of these problems arising if Florida Democrats go forward with their plan?

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Florida Democratic Party Proposes June 3 Mail Vote Primary

Politico reports that the Florida Democratic Party has developed a plan to redo its Primary election through a June 3 Mail Ballot.

No word yet from either Clinton or Obama on their reactions to the proposal. The re-vote election is estimated to cost between $10-$12 million, though right now, no one has volunteered to pay for it.

The plan reads in part:

" With the oversight of the commission, the primary will be managed by reputable election management companies who are experienced in special elections. A recognized accounting firm will provide further assurance that the process is conducted fairly and accurately. Civil rights and election law attorneys will monitor all legal aspects of the primary.

The primary will be organized at a Florida Democratic Primary Headquarters (HQ) office in Central Florida. The 50 REOs will handle local outreach and educational activity, with specific consideration given to disadvantaged communities.

Vote-by-mail (VBM) packets will be mailed to all registered Democratic voters at least two weeks prior to Election Day (likely earlier). This will be handled by a firm experienced in special elections conducted by mail. VBM packets will contain a prepaid, addressed return envelope and one ballot. The instructions will be simple and clearly printed on the ballot and envelope. All ballots and instructions will be printed in English, Spanish and Creole to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The plan can be submitted to the Justice Department for approval under Section 5.

Although VBM packets will not be forwarded, when a ballot is returned as undeliverable, a notification card will be sent to the voter’s forwarding address offering the voter the opportunity to correct their registration record and receive a new VBM packet in time for the election. The undeliverable ballots also will be recorded and stored until 21 days after the voting deadline.

If a voter does not receive a ballot or whose ballot has been damaged/lost, he or she may contact HQ or an REO to request a replacement. A voter may cast an in-person provisional ballot at a regional office if their voting eligibility cannot be confirmed.
REOs will be open every day for the two weeks leading up to the voting deadline for informational purposes, distribution of replacement ballots, in-person voting, and collection of completed ballots. REOs will have a locked ballot box and will be staffed, but votes will only be counted at HQ. Every evening, the day’s ballot box will be picked up from the REOs and transported to HQ. All ballots must be received by 7:00 PM on Election Day to count."

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Presidential Candidate Campaign Obstacles

Now that there's a mini-lull in the presidential campaign schedule, here is some information on the obstacles facing each of the remaining presidential candidates:

For Senator John McCain (R-AZ), the presumptive Republican nominee, there is a concern that his prior entry into the Federal Election Commission's (FEC) public financing system, and the FEC chairman's recent letter suggesting McCain will not be able to withdraw from such a system, will hamstring his campaign before he officially accepts the Republican nomination in Minneapolis-St. Paul in September. Of particular interest is the irony that the very system McCain helped create may well limit his ability to compete with financial juggernauts, Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) or Hillary Clinton (D-NY). This, of course, is in addition to the recent, oft-criticized reports, that McCain engaged in an improper relationship with a female lobbyist during his 2000 presidential campaign.

Before Senator Clinton even worries about facing McCain, however, she needs to combat the perception that her campaign is losing momentum, or as the New York Times reports, that her political horizon "darkens." As of Monday, February 25, Clinton has lost eleven straight nominating contests to Obama, and her campaign acknowledges that she must win delegate-rich Texas and Ohio to remain competitive.

Senator Obama faces obstacles on several fronts, including Republican accusations that he lacks patriotism, Senator Clinton's suggestions that Obama has flip-flopped on his stance on union involvement in this campaign, and even the concern that perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader, who recently announced he will again seek the presidency, will siphon votes from Obama. Finally, those comparing Obama to inspirational politicians of the 1960s fear that his candidacy threatens his life.

It will be an interesting 9-10 days to see which of these obstacles proves lasting and which fades with the passage of time.

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Obama v. Clinton: Could Delegate Counts Spark a Lawsuit?

Former U.S. Solicitor General and Bush v. Gore counsel, Ted Olson, writes in today's Wall Street Journal of the possibility of contentious litigation should there be a contest in seating delegates to the Democratic National Convention:

"Imagine that as the convention approaches, Sen. Clinton is leading in the popular vote, but Sen. Obama has the delegate lead. Surely no one familiar with her history would doubt that her take-no-prisoners campaign team would do whatever it took to capture the nomination, including all manner of challenges to Obama delegates and tidal waves of litigation.

"Indeed, it has already been reported that Sen. Clinton will demand that the convention seat delegates from Michigan and Florida, two states whose delegates have been disqualified by the party for holding January primaries in defiance of party rules. The candidates agreed not to campaign in those states. But Sen. Clinton opted to keep her name on the Michigan primary ballot, and staged a primary-day victory visit to Florida, winning both of those unsanctioned primaries. Her campaign is arguing that the delegates she won in each state be recognized despite party rules and notwithstanding her commitment not to compete in those primaries. Of course. 'Count every vote.'

"As the convention nears, with Sen. Clinton trailing slightly in the delegate count, the next step might well be a suit in the Florida courts challenging her party's refusal to seat Florida's delegation at the convention. And the Florida courts, as they did twice in 2000, might find some ostensible legal basis for overturning the pre-election rules and order the party to recognize the Clinton Florida delegates. That might tip the balance to Sen. Clinton..."

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Check Out Hillary's New Victory Speech Game

Stephen Colbert at The Colbert Report introduces us to Hillary's new dance and tells us that Garrison Keillor is the "whitest man alive". Check out the video here:


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Where Do Democrats Go From Here?

There is likely to be a protracted battle for Delegates to the Democratic National Convention unseen in generations.

With Obama and Hillary very near each other in Delegate counts after Super Tuesday (Hillary: ~845, Obama: ~765) and neither anywhere near the 2,025 needed to win the nomination, this contest could go on for weeks (if not months).

Politico has an overview of some of the strategy going into the next phase of the Democratic Presidential nomination campaign.

Then there's the nightmare scenario: a Convention so close that the DNC Credentials Committee would have to determine whether or not Florida and Michigan get to seat their delegates and determine the winner.

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The Free Market Predicts Obama Will Win California Tomorrow

Two electronic predictive markets that offer trades on the Democratic Presidential Primary in California tomorrow both predict wins for Barack Obama.

InTrade Prediction Markets, trading real money, is currently trading a Barack Obama win in California at 57.6, with Hillary trading at 30.5.

The National Journal Political Stock Exchange, a free site, is currently trading a Barack Obama win in California at 58.0, with Hillary trading at 38.0.

Though these same markets failed to predict Hillary's Primary win in New Hampshire, they have otherwise often proved to be fairly accurate.

These websites allow users to buy and sell shares in predicting political outcomes. For any given race, a correct outcome is worth $1.00 per share. Leading up to the outcome, you can buy our sell predictions on which candidate will win, with the price of that share representing the marketplace's view on the likelihood of that outcome. For instance, if you were to say that there is an equal likelihood of the Democrat or Republican winning in a particular race, each candidate's share should trade for $0.50. If a particular candidate is more likely to win, their share will trade closer to the full dollar.

In my book, it's still too close to call.

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Democratic Presidential Race Taking Shape?

After splitting wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are mounting increasingly aggressive campaigns against each other, as the Washington Post's Dan Balz notes. Far from being a two-way race, however, Balz also argues that former Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) has a very important role to play, perhaps in siphoning votes from either Clinton or Obama, or in a potential decision to release his delegates to either candidate.

Edwards, however, says that he's "in to win," and some polls in soon-to-vote states support such a decision. What seems clear, then, is that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is wide-open. The next contest in which all three will be on the ballot is in Nevada, where residents will caucus January 19. Stay tuned for results and predictions of the outcome.




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2008 Presidential Election: What's Next?

We are now in what can be considered the middle of the front-loaded Presidential nominating process. The two early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are now behind us. A handful of additional states will have their contests in the next two weeks, with the majority of National Delegates allocated on February 5.

Here is a brief overview of what is coming and where the candidates stand:

Tuesday, January 15:
Michigan Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Michigan of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
30 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 27%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 15%)

Saturday, January 19:
South Carolina Republican Primary
24 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 28%, Huckabee 21%, Romney 17%)

Nevada Caucuses
33 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%)
34 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%)

Saturday, January 26:
South Carolina Democratic Primary
54 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 44%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 16%)

Tuesday, January 29:
Florida Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Florida of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
57 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 19%, Huckabee 19%)

Friday, February 1:
Maine Republican Primary
21 GOP Delegates
(No polling data available)

Tuesday, February 5:
"Super Tuesday" - 22 states hold Primaries and Caucuses, representing a majority of National Convention Delegates

California Primary
440 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%)
173 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 17%, Romney 15%)

New York Primary
280 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 56%, Obama 29%, Edwards 8%)
101 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 32%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 12%)

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McCain and Obama Leading the Day Before New Hampshire Primary

The 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary is tomorrow. It appears likely that Barack Obama and John McCain will win there, which would be important victories for each of them, and will almost certainly lead to more candidates to withdraw from the race (Fred Thompson? Duncan Hunter? Bill Richardson?).

With one day to go, CNN and Gallop polls show Obama with double-digit leads over Hillary Clinton, and gaining more momentum quickly.

The same polls show a more competitive race on the Republican side, with Senator McCain leading Mitt Romney by four to six points, depending on the poll.

Poor showings in the Iowa Caucuses last week led Chris Dodd and Joe Biden to drop out.

Once again, Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board member Steve Grove of YouTube, gives us a video overview of the New Hampshire campaigns:


[In case anyone was actually paying attention, my predictions for the Iowa Caucuses weren't too far off].

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Iowa Caucuses Two Days Away and Still Wide Open

The Iowa Presidential Caucuses will be held this Thursday, January 3, and national polls show a virtual dead heat among the three Democratic front-runners. The final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton. As the final poll in the race, conducted by the state's major newspaper, this announcement could give a strong final boost to Obama's campaign.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been battling for the lead, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Fred Thomson all vying for a third place finish. Though Mike Huckabee's surge of the past two months has received the most mainstream press coverage, in many ways it is more noteworthy that Ron Paul and John McCain are both competitive here. John McCain's candidacy was written off months ago by many observers when fundraising and staffing problems caused him to struggle. And Ron Paul, despite raising a staggering $20 million dollars this quarter, has still gone virtually unnoticed by the media and the general public, yet remains on par with the major candidates in polls of Iowa caucus-goers.

If either of these contests finishes as closely as they could, it is possible that the winner will not gain the momentum that traditionally follows from an Iowa victory. But this all remains to be seen. Two more days and we should have some answers.

---------------------------------------

Just for fun, here are my predictions for the Iowa caucuses:*

GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee - 29%
2. Mitt Romney - 28%
3. John McCain - 12%

DEM:
1. Barack Obama - 30%
2. John Edwards - 28%
3. Hillary Clinton - 27%

*Disclaimers:
1) These are not the views of the Institute for Law and Politics.
2) These are just guesses, not expert analysis.
3) I just want a record of my predictions in the unlikely event that I am exactly right.

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Are you already tired of the debates? Newsweek is.

From Newsweek's coverage of last night's Democratic Presidential debate titled: Somewhat Less Fun Than 'The Sopranos': Nearly 600 days before the election, these beauty pageants keep happening. We suppose we have to cover them.

Nearly 6OO days before the election, we're in spring training. Most of these folks, of course, won't make the cut. There's a reason we don't start watching the teams until the teams have had a chance to get their lineups set. This show just isn't ready for prime time yet.

I'd have to agree that having candidates raise their hands to answer hypothetical questions really trivializes that complexities of real political issues. Would it be too much to ask to find a format that allows candidates more than 10 seconds to solve the problems of war, terrorism, or immigration?

Here are some clips from the debate. There will certainly be more to follow.

Edwards on Clinton and Obama's Iraq War votes:


Iraq War funding:


English as the official national language:


Hunt for Osama Bin Laden:


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Stephen Colbert: "Obama is a liar. Pass it on."

The Colbert Report discusses the newest Barack Obama scandal: he can't remember the name of a magazine he read over 30 years ago. And because of this lapse, Stephen Colbert doesn't want us to trust Obama with national security.

The video here:


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Which Presidental candidates have good websites?

Warning: These articles will make little sense unless you consider yourself "tech-savvy".

SEOmoz has a review of Presidential candidate website "Search Engine Optimization" (the set of website traits that make a site more likely to rank high in Google and Yahoo searches - the sign of a well-designed site). Their conclusion: Barack Obama's site is well-designed, John McCain fails almost every rule.

SoloSEO has a similar review. Their rank: The three leading Democrats beat the three leading Republicans in almost every website design and optimization category.

Are Republicans in need of some technology training? Will it have any actual effect on the election?

It seems that John McCain's inability to get his website onto the first page of a Google Search for "John McCain" could be detrimental (especially if it remains true next year) when average General Election voters start wanting to compare candidates.

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Move over YouTube, it's the Facebook election.

The New York Times famously declared 2006 "The YouTube Election."

This year social networking sites like Facebook and MySpace appear to be the leading campaign technologies for shaping the 2008 election.

Last week it was Barack Obama's fiasco managing his MySpace page. Yesterday, the Political Insider detailed his exceptional ability to attract young people as Facebook friends.

Update: The morning, the San Francisco Chronicle has an article on the role of social networking sites on the election.

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How not to run a Presidential campaign in the internet age

Yesterday we reported on Barack Obama's ethical lapse in using government resources for campaign purposes.

Today, the Obama campaign is embroiled in a more subtle, but potentially more damaging problem - a fight over who controls a candidate's MySpace page, and how volunteer "netroots" activists should be treated by paid campaign staff - which is all playing out in the blogs and networking sites that Obama has been trying to woo.

Obama caught using Senate resources for campaign purposes

Newsweek reports on a campaign strategy memo for Presidential candidate Barack Obama, faxed using a government-paid U.S. Senate fax machine.

In the grand scheme of things it's not the end of the world, but it certainly indicates a campaign that doesn't have tight ethics or operations plans in place.

Law and Politics Roundup 04.18.2007

In today's law and politics news:

Minnesota:
Trial lawyer Mike Ciresi enters the U.S. Senate race. Michael Brodkorp has some video from the announcement:



ThinkProgress reports on alleged flip-flops by Senator Coleman regarding his role in the appointment of U.S. Attorney Rachel Paulose.

Nation:
McClatchy reports that the White House is demanding to see RNC emails before they are handed over to the House Judiciary Committee. This is likely to be a battle.

Politico has an interesting commentary on the technology divide between Republicans and Democrats.

Speaking of campaign technology, presidential candidate Duncan Hunter could use some major help with his emails.

And when campaign technology and marketing data collide, we find out that Obama supporters are obsessed with their Blackberrys.