McCain and Obama Leading the Day Before New Hampshire Primary

The 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary is tomorrow. It appears likely that Barack Obama and John McCain will win there, which would be important victories for each of them, and will almost certainly lead to more candidates to withdraw from the race (Fred Thompson? Duncan Hunter? Bill Richardson?).

With one day to go, CNN and Gallop polls show Obama with double-digit leads over Hillary Clinton, and gaining more momentum quickly.

The same polls show a more competitive race on the Republican side, with Senator McCain leading Mitt Romney by four to six points, depending on the poll.

Poor showings in the Iowa Caucuses last week led Chris Dodd and Joe Biden to drop out.

Once again, Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board member Steve Grove of YouTube, gives us a video overview of the New Hampshire campaigns:


[In case anyone was actually paying attention, my predictions for the Iowa Caucuses weren't too far off].

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Iowa Caucuses Two Days Away and Still Wide Open

The Iowa Presidential Caucuses will be held this Thursday, January 3, and national polls show a virtual dead heat among the three Democratic front-runners. The final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton. As the final poll in the race, conducted by the state's major newspaper, this announcement could give a strong final boost to Obama's campaign.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been battling for the lead, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Fred Thomson all vying for a third place finish. Though Mike Huckabee's surge of the past two months has received the most mainstream press coverage, in many ways it is more noteworthy that Ron Paul and John McCain are both competitive here. John McCain's candidacy was written off months ago by many observers when fundraising and staffing problems caused him to struggle. And Ron Paul, despite raising a staggering $20 million dollars this quarter, has still gone virtually unnoticed by the media and the general public, yet remains on par with the major candidates in polls of Iowa caucus-goers.

If either of these contests finishes as closely as they could, it is possible that the winner will not gain the momentum that traditionally follows from an Iowa victory. But this all remains to be seen. Two more days and we should have some answers.

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Just for fun, here are my predictions for the Iowa caucuses:*

GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee - 29%
2. Mitt Romney - 28%
3. John McCain - 12%

DEM:
1. Barack Obama - 30%
2. John Edwards - 28%
3. Hillary Clinton - 27%

*Disclaimers:
1) These are not the views of the Institute for Law and Politics.
2) These are just guesses, not expert analysis.
3) I just want a record of my predictions in the unlikely event that I am exactly right.

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Politico: Fred Thompson's campaign has one month to prove itself

The Politico's Mike Allen argues that Fred Thompson has until the end of September to prove himself as a top-tier Presidential candidate:

"Now Thompson needs the cash spigot to begin gushing as soon as he appears Thursday at Des Moines’ Polk County Convention Center. He needs to swiftly validate the premise of his campaign, which is that there’s pent-up demand among Republican donors and activists for some alternative to Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.

So Thompson’s deadline is not Election Day 2008, or even the January nominating contests.

The make-or-break date for his campaign is Sept. 30 – the Federal Election Commission cut-off for the next financial report. That document, which must be filed by Oct. 15, will determine Thompson’s fate. If he looks weak, he is unlikely to get the money, endorsements and grass-roots support that he’ll need to pull off his Houdini act, insiders say.

It amounts to a three-week, do-or-die sprint, and even Thompson does not claim to be a sprinter."

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