Democratic Presidential Race Taking Shape?

After splitting wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are mounting increasingly aggressive campaigns against each other, as the Washington Post's Dan Balz notes. Far from being a two-way race, however, Balz also argues that former Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) has a very important role to play, perhaps in siphoning votes from either Clinton or Obama, or in a potential decision to release his delegates to either candidate.

Edwards, however, says that he's "in to win," and some polls in soon-to-vote states support such a decision. What seems clear, then, is that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is wide-open. The next contest in which all three will be on the ballot is in Nevada, where residents will caucus January 19. Stay tuned for results and predictions of the outcome.




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2008 Presidential Election: What's Next?

We are now in what can be considered the middle of the front-loaded Presidential nominating process. The two early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are now behind us. A handful of additional states will have their contests in the next two weeks, with the majority of National Delegates allocated on February 5.

Here is a brief overview of what is coming and where the candidates stand:

Tuesday, January 15:
Michigan Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Michigan of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
30 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 27%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 15%)

Saturday, January 19:
South Carolina Republican Primary
24 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 28%, Huckabee 21%, Romney 17%)

Nevada Caucuses
33 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%)
34 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%)

Saturday, January 26:
South Carolina Democratic Primary
54 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 44%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 16%)

Tuesday, January 29:
Florida Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Florida of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
57 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 19%, Huckabee 19%)

Friday, February 1:
Maine Republican Primary
21 GOP Delegates
(No polling data available)

Tuesday, February 5:
"Super Tuesday" - 22 states hold Primaries and Caucuses, representing a majority of National Convention Delegates

California Primary
440 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%)
173 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 17%, Romney 15%)

New York Primary
280 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 56%, Obama 29%, Edwards 8%)
101 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 32%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 12%)

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Iowa Caucuses Two Days Away and Still Wide Open

The Iowa Presidential Caucuses will be held this Thursday, January 3, and national polls show a virtual dead heat among the three Democratic front-runners. The final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton. As the final poll in the race, conducted by the state's major newspaper, this announcement could give a strong final boost to Obama's campaign.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been battling for the lead, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Fred Thomson all vying for a third place finish. Though Mike Huckabee's surge of the past two months has received the most mainstream press coverage, in many ways it is more noteworthy that Ron Paul and John McCain are both competitive here. John McCain's candidacy was written off months ago by many observers when fundraising and staffing problems caused him to struggle. And Ron Paul, despite raising a staggering $20 million dollars this quarter, has still gone virtually unnoticed by the media and the general public, yet remains on par with the major candidates in polls of Iowa caucus-goers.

If either of these contests finishes as closely as they could, it is possible that the winner will not gain the momentum that traditionally follows from an Iowa victory. But this all remains to be seen. Two more days and we should have some answers.

---------------------------------------

Just for fun, here are my predictions for the Iowa caucuses:*

GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee - 29%
2. Mitt Romney - 28%
3. John McCain - 12%

DEM:
1. Barack Obama - 30%
2. John Edwards - 28%
3. Hillary Clinton - 27%

*Disclaimers:
1) These are not the views of the Institute for Law and Politics.
2) These are just guesses, not expert analysis.
3) I just want a record of my predictions in the unlikely event that I am exactly right.

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Are you already tired of the debates? Newsweek is.

From Newsweek's coverage of last night's Democratic Presidential debate titled: Somewhat Less Fun Than 'The Sopranos': Nearly 600 days before the election, these beauty pageants keep happening. We suppose we have to cover them.

Nearly 6OO days before the election, we're in spring training. Most of these folks, of course, won't make the cut. There's a reason we don't start watching the teams until the teams have had a chance to get their lineups set. This show just isn't ready for prime time yet.

I'd have to agree that having candidates raise their hands to answer hypothetical questions really trivializes that complexities of real political issues. Would it be too much to ask to find a format that allows candidates more than 10 seconds to solve the problems of war, terrorism, or immigration?

Here are some clips from the debate. There will certainly be more to follow.

Edwards on Clinton and Obama's Iraq War votes:


Iraq War funding:


English as the official national language:


Hunt for Osama Bin Laden:


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Are there any non-millionaires running for President?

2008 Presidential candidates will report their personal financial disclosures today.

We all know Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani and Romney have a lot of money, but might there be some surprises?

Can people only worth a couple of million (or less) even run for President any more?

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More on the booming business of staffing political campaigns

Yesterday we noted the growing employment market for campaign staffers.

Today the Washington Post reports on the huge contracts going to campaign consultants.

Speaking of campaign spending, Colbert discusses John Edwards' $400 haircuts: