Will Protracted Nomination Fight Help or Hurt Democrats?

Common political wisdom in recent weeks, as exemplified by this report in the New York Times, is that a protracted nomination fight could spoil the best chance Democrats have in recent years of reclaiming the White House. With an unpopular president and a struggling economy, Democratic candidates Barack Obama (D-IL) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) argue that they have a unique opportunity to claim the mantle of change and sail to victory. However, with neither likely to gain the nomination without the help of so-called superdelegates, neither appears likely to concede to the other any time soon. The result, many in the Democratic Party fear, is that they will tear each other down and hurt each other's chances at winning the presidency.

However, as a recent analysis in the Washington Post suggests, there may be a flip side to a protracted nomination fight: increased voter registration and interest. While Democrats participating in early contests outnumbered republicans by nearly 2 to 1 in states like Iowa, they are gaining an even greater advantage in registered voters in more recent states like Pennsylvania, where Republicans have no meaningful contest, with presumptive nominee John McCain (R-AZ) having already secured the delegates necessary to win the nomination.

Will a protracted nomination fight help or hurt Democrats? Post in the comments section below.
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Presidential Candidate Campaign Obstacles

Now that there's a mini-lull in the presidential campaign schedule, here is some information on the obstacles facing each of the remaining presidential candidates:

For Senator John McCain (R-AZ), the presumptive Republican nominee, there is a concern that his prior entry into the Federal Election Commission's (FEC) public financing system, and the FEC chairman's recent letter suggesting McCain will not be able to withdraw from such a system, will hamstring his campaign before he officially accepts the Republican nomination in Minneapolis-St. Paul in September. Of particular interest is the irony that the very system McCain helped create may well limit his ability to compete with financial juggernauts, Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) or Hillary Clinton (D-NY). This, of course, is in addition to the recent, oft-criticized reports, that McCain engaged in an improper relationship with a female lobbyist during his 2000 presidential campaign.

Before Senator Clinton even worries about facing McCain, however, she needs to combat the perception that her campaign is losing momentum, or as the New York Times reports, that her political horizon "darkens." As of Monday, February 25, Clinton has lost eleven straight nominating contests to Obama, and her campaign acknowledges that she must win delegate-rich Texas and Ohio to remain competitive.

Senator Obama faces obstacles on several fronts, including Republican accusations that he lacks patriotism, Senator Clinton's suggestions that Obama has flip-flopped on his stance on union involvement in this campaign, and even the concern that perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader, who recently announced he will again seek the presidency, will siphon votes from Obama. Finally, those comparing Obama to inspirational politicians of the 1960s fear that his candidacy threatens his life.

It will be an interesting 9-10 days to see which of these obstacles proves lasting and which fades with the passage of time.

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2008 Presidential Election: What's Next?

We are now in what can be considered the middle of the front-loaded Presidential nominating process. The two early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are now behind us. A handful of additional states will have their contests in the next two weeks, with the majority of National Delegates allocated on February 5.

Here is a brief overview of what is coming and where the candidates stand:

Tuesday, January 15:
Michigan Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Michigan of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
30 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 27%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 15%)

Saturday, January 19:
South Carolina Republican Primary
24 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 28%, Huckabee 21%, Romney 17%)

Nevada Caucuses
33 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%)
34 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%)

Saturday, January 26:
South Carolina Democratic Primary
54 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 44%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 16%)

Tuesday, January 29:
Florida Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Florida of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
57 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 19%, Huckabee 19%)

Friday, February 1:
Maine Republican Primary
21 GOP Delegates
(No polling data available)

Tuesday, February 5:
"Super Tuesday" - 22 states hold Primaries and Caucuses, representing a majority of National Convention Delegates

California Primary
440 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%)
173 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 17%, Romney 15%)

New York Primary
280 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 56%, Obama 29%, Edwards 8%)
101 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 32%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 12%)

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McCain and Obama Leading the Day Before New Hampshire Primary

The 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary is tomorrow. It appears likely that Barack Obama and John McCain will win there, which would be important victories for each of them, and will almost certainly lead to more candidates to withdraw from the race (Fred Thompson? Duncan Hunter? Bill Richardson?).

With one day to go, CNN and Gallop polls show Obama with double-digit leads over Hillary Clinton, and gaining more momentum quickly.

The same polls show a more competitive race on the Republican side, with Senator McCain leading Mitt Romney by four to six points, depending on the poll.

Poor showings in the Iowa Caucuses last week led Chris Dodd and Joe Biden to drop out.

Once again, Institute for Law and Politics Advisory Board member Steve Grove of YouTube, gives us a video overview of the New Hampshire campaigns:


[In case anyone was actually paying attention, my predictions for the Iowa Caucuses weren't too far off].

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Iowa Caucuses Two Days Away and Still Wide Open

The Iowa Presidential Caucuses will be held this Thursday, January 3, and national polls show a virtual dead heat among the three Democratic front-runners. The final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton. As the final poll in the race, conducted by the state's major newspaper, this announcement could give a strong final boost to Obama's campaign.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been battling for the lead, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Fred Thomson all vying for a third place finish. Though Mike Huckabee's surge of the past two months has received the most mainstream press coverage, in many ways it is more noteworthy that Ron Paul and John McCain are both competitive here. John McCain's candidacy was written off months ago by many observers when fundraising and staffing problems caused him to struggle. And Ron Paul, despite raising a staggering $20 million dollars this quarter, has still gone virtually unnoticed by the media and the general public, yet remains on par with the major candidates in polls of Iowa caucus-goers.

If either of these contests finishes as closely as they could, it is possible that the winner will not gain the momentum that traditionally follows from an Iowa victory. But this all remains to be seen. Two more days and we should have some answers.

---------------------------------------

Just for fun, here are my predictions for the Iowa caucuses:*

GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee - 29%
2. Mitt Romney - 28%
3. John McCain - 12%

DEM:
1. Barack Obama - 30%
2. John Edwards - 28%
3. Hillary Clinton - 27%

*Disclaimers:
1) These are not the views of the Institute for Law and Politics.
2) These are just guesses, not expert analysis.
3) I just want a record of my predictions in the unlikely event that I am exactly right.

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Why don't Republicans understand the value of technology in political campaigns?

We've mentioned the divide between Democrats and Republicans in the use of campaign technology before.

Earlier this week, the Democratic presidential candidates participated in the first CNN/YouTube debate. Though not perfect, it was broadly seen as a successful melding of the traditional debate format with a new, more engaging, citizen-produced question format. Today the blogosphere is abuzz with news that only two (Ron Paul and John McCain) of the nine Republican presidential candidates have so far agreed to participate in the next CNN/YouTube debate scheduled for September.

From the Washington Post:

"In an interview Wednesday with the New Hampshire Union Leader, Romney said he's not a fan of the CNN/YouTube format. Referring to the video of a snowman asking the Democratic candidates about global warming, Romney quipped, 'I think the presidency ought to be held at a higher level than having to answer questions from a snowman.'"

From the New York Times:

"So, today, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani seemed rather reluctant to attend. A spokeswoman, Katie Levinson, told The Times’s Marc Santora that the campaign had a likely scheduling conflict on that date."

I'm happy to grant that some of the videos in the first debate were silly. Most of them, however, were quite earnest. And why can't a debate have a little levity? We certainly don't need more debates like the one where the Republican candidates were given hypothetical scenarios out of "24" and had to tell us how they would be the best candidate to torture a confession out of a terrorist. There's certainly a middle ground - of actually issue discussion - between snowman YouTube videos and Jack Bauer torture scenes, but that doesn't give much of an excuse for the candidates failing to adapt to this new era of political campaign technology.

User-generated content and citizen participation in the creation of political dialogue should not be partisan. If it remains so, the Republicans are going to have a harder time than normal attracting young people to their side next year.


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Is the McCain campaign winding down?

The New York Times reports that Presidential candidate John McCain's top two campaign leaders resigned in unison today.

Yesterday we noted that Ron Paul now has more campaign money than Senator McCain (and certainly momentum in a different direction).

These facts, and the the Senator's poll numbers in Iowa, lead us to believe that the McCain campaign might be winding down. That's quite a rapid descent for the front-runner of just a few months ago.

If the front-runner can tank that quickly, might some of the other long-shot candidates (Duncan Hunter, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thomson - but never Ron Paul!) be next?

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Is Ron Paul now a top tier candidate?

On July 15, presidential candidate Ron Paul will report raising $2.4 million in the second quarter of 2007 with over $2 million remaining in his campaign account after paying expenses. This is more cash on hand than any of the other Republican candidates except Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Texas Congressman Ron Paul now has more money than John McCain. [Thanks to the "Colbert bump"!]

Ron Paul has for months been the darling of the libertarian-leaning internet crowd, but apparently his fans are willing to back up their blog presence with real campaign cash.

With the #3 war chest in the race, should Ron Paul now be taken seriously by the mainstream media? And how will Congressman Paul use his $2 million? Is he going to build a traditional Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina staff operation, or will he leverage it in online ads for even more cash come 2008?

Another note: Is there anything John McCain can do at this point to even remain on the Iowa ballot by next January?

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Which Presidental candidates have good websites?

Warning: These articles will make little sense unless you consider yourself "tech-savvy".

SEOmoz has a review of Presidential candidate website "Search Engine Optimization" (the set of website traits that make a site more likely to rank high in Google and Yahoo searches - the sign of a well-designed site). Their conclusion: Barack Obama's site is well-designed, John McCain fails almost every rule.

SoloSEO has a similar review. Their rank: The three leading Democrats beat the three leading Republicans in almost every website design and optimization category.

Are Republicans in need of some technology training? Will it have any actual effect on the election?

It seems that John McCain's inability to get his website onto the first page of a Google Search for "John McCain" could be detrimental (especially if it remains true next year) when average General Election voters start wanting to compare candidates.

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GOP Presidential candidate debate recap.

Decent overviews at USA Today, Newsweek and Politico.

Video highlights include Ron Paul on U.S. foreign intervention policy and 9/11, with Rudy Giuliani's response:


McCain opposes torture, others receive applause for supporting water-boarding (Romney: "I want them on Guantanamo where they don't get access to lawyers...We ought to double Guantanamo"):


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McCain calls for creation of a "League of Democracies", an alternative to the United Nations

Today, Presidential candidate John McCain proposed the creation of a new "League of Democracies," which he envisioned as a supplement to the UN and NATO, where democratic nations could engage in diplomacy and strategy.

John McCain on the Daily Show

A not-so-smooth appearance for John McCain on the eve of his announcement:



and Part 2:

MoveOn.org Responds to McCain Video

Yesterday, we reported on the John McCain video where he sings "Bomb Iran." Today, MoveOn.org releases a commericial responding to that video:



McCain responds that critics should "lighten up" and "get a life."

Law and Politics Daily Roundup 04.19.2007

Today in the world of law and politics:

National:
Obviously, the Gonzales testimony is the leading story. All the news sites and blogs will have stories, but here's some video:



The Abramoff scandal isn't going away. Another Member of Congress is now implicated. Today, Tom Doolittle stepped down from his Appropriations Committee seat.

The Politico has an interesting story on the booming employment and salary market for campaign staffers.

McClatchy has an article on the inherent politicization of voter fraud investigations.

Springfield, Illinois overwhelmingly passed a ranked-choice/instant-runoff voting plan.

John McCain singing his "Bomb Iran" song...