2008 Presidential Election: What's Next?

We are now in what can be considered the middle of the front-loaded Presidential nominating process. The two early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are now behind us. A handful of additional states will have their contests in the next two weeks, with the majority of National Delegates allocated on February 5.

Here is a brief overview of what is coming and where the candidates stand:

Tuesday, January 15:
Michigan Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Michigan of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
30 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 27%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 15%)

Saturday, January 19:
South Carolina Republican Primary
24 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 28%, Huckabee 21%, Romney 17%)

Nevada Caucuses
33 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%)
34 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%)

Saturday, January 26:
South Carolina Democratic Primary
54 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 44%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 16%)

Tuesday, January 29:
Florida Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Florida of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
57 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 19%, Huckabee 19%)

Friday, February 1:
Maine Republican Primary
21 GOP Delegates
(No polling data available)

Tuesday, February 5:
"Super Tuesday" - 22 states hold Primaries and Caucuses, representing a majority of National Convention Delegates

California Primary
440 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%)
173 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 17%, Romney 15%)

New York Primary
280 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 56%, Obama 29%, Edwards 8%)
101 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 32%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 12%)

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Iowa Caucuses Two Days Away and Still Wide Open

The Iowa Presidential Caucuses will be held this Thursday, January 3, and national polls show a virtual dead heat among the three Democratic front-runners. The final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton. As the final poll in the race, conducted by the state's major newspaper, this announcement could give a strong final boost to Obama's campaign.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been battling for the lead, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Fred Thomson all vying for a third place finish. Though Mike Huckabee's surge of the past two months has received the most mainstream press coverage, in many ways it is more noteworthy that Ron Paul and John McCain are both competitive here. John McCain's candidacy was written off months ago by many observers when fundraising and staffing problems caused him to struggle. And Ron Paul, despite raising a staggering $20 million dollars this quarter, has still gone virtually unnoticed by the media and the general public, yet remains on par with the major candidates in polls of Iowa caucus-goers.

If either of these contests finishes as closely as they could, it is possible that the winner will not gain the momentum that traditionally follows from an Iowa victory. But this all remains to be seen. Two more days and we should have some answers.

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Just for fun, here are my predictions for the Iowa caucuses:*

GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee - 29%
2. Mitt Romney - 28%
3. John McCain - 12%

DEM:
1. Barack Obama - 30%
2. John Edwards - 28%
3. Hillary Clinton - 27%

*Disclaimers:
1) These are not the views of the Institute for Law and Politics.
2) These are just guesses, not expert analysis.
3) I just want a record of my predictions in the unlikely event that I am exactly right.

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