2008 Presidential Election: What's Next?

We are now in what can be considered the middle of the front-loaded Presidential nominating process. The two early states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are now behind us. A handful of additional states will have their contests in the next two weeks, with the majority of National Delegates allocated on February 5.

Here is a brief overview of what is coming and where the candidates stand:

Tuesday, January 15:
Michigan Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Michigan of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
30 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 27%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 15%)

Saturday, January 19:
South Carolina Republican Primary
24 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 28%, Huckabee 21%, Romney 17%)

Nevada Caucuses
33 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 32%, Clinton 30%, Edwards 27%)
34 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%)

Saturday, January 26:
South Carolina Democratic Primary
54 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Obama 44%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 16%)

Tuesday, January 29:
Florida Primary
0 Democratic Delegates
(DNC stripped Florida of its National Delegates for moving its Primary earlier than allowed)
57 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: McCain 22%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 19%, Huckabee 19%)

Friday, February 1:
Maine Republican Primary
21 GOP Delegates
(No polling data available)

Tuesday, February 5:
"Super Tuesday" - 22 states hold Primaries and Caucuses, representing a majority of National Convention Delegates

California Primary
440 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 13%)
173 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 25%, Huckabee 17%, Romney 15%)

New York Primary
280 Democratic Delegates
(Recent polls show: Clinton 56%, Obama 29%, Edwards 8%)
101 GOP Delegates
(Recent polls show: Giuliani 32%, McCain 29%, Huckabee 12%)

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Iowa Caucuses Two Days Away and Still Wide Open

The Iowa Presidential Caucuses will be held this Thursday, January 3, and national polls show a virtual dead heat among the three Democratic front-runners. The final Des Moines Register poll before the caucuses shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton. As the final poll in the race, conducted by the state's major newspaper, this announcement could give a strong final boost to Obama's campaign.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have been battling for the lead, with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, and Fred Thomson all vying for a third place finish. Though Mike Huckabee's surge of the past two months has received the most mainstream press coverage, in many ways it is more noteworthy that Ron Paul and John McCain are both competitive here. John McCain's candidacy was written off months ago by many observers when fundraising and staffing problems caused him to struggle. And Ron Paul, despite raising a staggering $20 million dollars this quarter, has still gone virtually unnoticed by the media and the general public, yet remains on par with the major candidates in polls of Iowa caucus-goers.

If either of these contests finishes as closely as they could, it is possible that the winner will not gain the momentum that traditionally follows from an Iowa victory. But this all remains to be seen. Two more days and we should have some answers.

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Just for fun, here are my predictions for the Iowa caucuses:*

GOP:
1. Mike Huckabee - 29%
2. Mitt Romney - 28%
3. John McCain - 12%

DEM:
1. Barack Obama - 30%
2. John Edwards - 28%
3. Hillary Clinton - 27%

*Disclaimers:
1) These are not the views of the Institute for Law and Politics.
2) These are just guesses, not expert analysis.
3) I just want a record of my predictions in the unlikely event that I am exactly right.

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Why don't Republicans understand the value of technology in political campaigns?

We've mentioned the divide between Democrats and Republicans in the use of campaign technology before.

Earlier this week, the Democratic presidential candidates participated in the first CNN/YouTube debate. Though not perfect, it was broadly seen as a successful melding of the traditional debate format with a new, more engaging, citizen-produced question format. Today the blogosphere is abuzz with news that only two (Ron Paul and John McCain) of the nine Republican presidential candidates have so far agreed to participate in the next CNN/YouTube debate scheduled for September.

From the Washington Post:

"In an interview Wednesday with the New Hampshire Union Leader, Romney said he's not a fan of the CNN/YouTube format. Referring to the video of a snowman asking the Democratic candidates about global warming, Romney quipped, 'I think the presidency ought to be held at a higher level than having to answer questions from a snowman.'"

From the New York Times:

"So, today, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani seemed rather reluctant to attend. A spokeswoman, Katie Levinson, told The Times’s Marc Santora that the campaign had a likely scheduling conflict on that date."

I'm happy to grant that some of the videos in the first debate were silly. Most of them, however, were quite earnest. And why can't a debate have a little levity? We certainly don't need more debates like the one where the Republican candidates were given hypothetical scenarios out of "24" and had to tell us how they would be the best candidate to torture a confession out of a terrorist. There's certainly a middle ground - of actually issue discussion - between snowman YouTube videos and Jack Bauer torture scenes, but that doesn't give much of an excuse for the candidates failing to adapt to this new era of political campaign technology.

User-generated content and citizen participation in the creation of political dialogue should not be partisan. If it remains so, the Republicans are going to have a harder time than normal attracting young people to their side next year.


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GOP Presidential candidate debate recap.

Decent overviews at USA Today, Newsweek and Politico.

Video highlights include Ron Paul on U.S. foreign intervention policy and 9/11, with Rudy Giuliani's response:


McCain opposes torture, others receive applause for supporting water-boarding (Romney: "I want them on Guantanamo where they don't get access to lawyers...We ought to double Guantanamo"):


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Are there any non-millionaires running for President?

2008 Presidential candidates will report their personal financial disclosures today.

We all know Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani and Romney have a lot of money, but might there be some surprises?

Can people only worth a couple of million (or less) even run for President any more?

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Drudge Report Poll has top three finishers of last night's GOP Debate: Romney, Giuliani and Ron Paul

(10:25am CDT, 05/04/2007)
DRUDGE POLL
WHO WON THE REAGAN DERBY?

Brownback
2% 2,239
Gilmore
2% 1,503
Giuliani
20% 19,928
Huckabee
4% 3,592
Hunter
3% 2,725
McCain
6% 5,736
Paul
18% 17,904
Romney
37% 36,546
Tancredo
5% 4,891
Tommy Thompson
5% 4,928

Total Votes: 99,992